Probabilistic assessment of earthquake insurance rates for buildings - Seismic Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure Systems - page 793

Table 29.3 Best estimate MDRs (in percent) for reinforced concrete buildings

Intensity (EMS-98)

Seismic zone V VI VII VIII IX

Zone I 0.15 4.67 7.98 15.77 24.00

Zone II 0.11 2.19 8.97 14.31 24.06

Zone III 0.15 2.50 10.56 21.08 32.08

Zone IV 0.04 4.16 14.64 22.78 33.40

Source: Adapted from Deniz and Yucemen (2007).

Bolvadin-Cay-Sultandagi, 2003 Izmir-Urla-Seferihisar, 2003 Bingol, 2003
Malatya-Puturge-Doganyol, 2003 Denizli-Buldan, 2004 Elazig-Sivrice-
Maden, 2005 Hakkari, and 2005 Cat-Karliova earthquakes. The new empiri-
cal data are based on the damage assessment reports of the above mentioned
earthquakes obtained from the archives of the General Directorate of
Disaster Affairs. Damage statistics of approximately 120 000 buildings are
compiled and processed for this purpose (Deniz, 2006).
The empirical damage distribution data obtained from the previously
compiled DPMs and the DPMs based on the study conducted by Deniz
(2006) were not adequate to establish a full set of MDRs for all intensity
levels. Accordingly, expert opinion DPMs given by Gurpinar et al. (1978)
for reinforced concrete buildings are utilized to complement the empirical
data. The resultant best estimate MDRs for reinforced concrete buildings
are given in Table 29.3.

29.3.3 Insurance premium rates for reinforced concrete
buildings located in different seismic zones
of Turkey

The DPMs obtained in the previous section give the damage probability
distributions explicitly for each discrete earthquake intensity level. Accord-
ingly, the annual earthquake occurrence rates of each intensity level (inten-
sity levels of V, VI, VII, VIII, and IX) are obtained by conducting PSHA as
described in Section 29.2.1. The matrix multiplication of the hazard compo-
nent and the damage component and the superposition of the results for a
full range of seismic hazard levels yield the expected annual damage ratio
(EADR k ) following Eq. (29.3). This quantity corresponds to the earthquake
insurance premium for a unit property replacement cost and is obtained
for reinforced concrete buildings located in different seismic zones of
Turkey. Finally, the pure risk premium (PRP k ) of a property can be calcu-
lated proportional to the corresponding property's insured value. In the