Probabilistic assessment of earthquake insurance rates for buildings - Seismic Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure Systems - page 789

Earthquake intensities, I

Seismic hazard, SH ( I )

Damage probability matrix
[

P k (DS, I )]

Mean damage ratios

MDR k ( I ) = ∑ P k (DS, I ) × CDR (DS)

DS

Expected annual damage ratio
EADR k =

∑ MDR k ( I ) × SH ( I )

I

Pure risk premium
PRP k = EADR k

INSV

×

Commercially priced premium
CPP k = PRP k
1-LF

29.1 Flowchart for the computation of earthquake insurance
premiums (adapted from Yucemen, 2005).

catalog compiled by Deniz (2006) for earthquakes occurred in Turkey was
used. This catalog contains instrumental earthquake records between
January 1, 1900 and July 30, 2004 where magnitudes of earthquakes given
in different scales are converted to the moment magnitude scale, M w , by
using the conversion equations developed by Deniz and Yucemen (2010).
For the use of the Poisson model, which assumes independence between
the occurrences of earthquakes, main shocks are differentiated from fore-
shocks and aftershocks, and a seismic database consisting of only main
shocks is prepared as an alternative to the original seismic database consist-
ing of all earthquakes. Seismic hazard analyses are performed by consider-
ing these two alternative seismic databases and the results are combined in
the logic tree analysis (see Table 29.2). In this declustering process all earth-
quakes that fall inside a given space and time window around another larger
magnitude event are classifi ed as foreshocks or aftershocks (secondary
events). Specifi cally, spatial aftershock zone sizes are determined as the