Seismic risk management of insurance losses using extreme value theory and copula - Seismic Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure Systems - page 761

Panel 1: Seismic hazard model Panel 3: Building inventory

Area
Structural/material type
Occupancy
Built year
Soil condition

Source zone model Magnitude-recurrence relation Ground-motion prediction equation

M 1
M 2
M 3

Vancouver

(m)

(m)

1000 1000

500 500

0 0

Cascadia
subduction
zone

-500

M min M max -500

Magnitude Distance

-1000

-1000

Panel 2: Synthetic earthquake catalogue and seismic intensity map Panel 4: Seismic vulnerability assessment and seismic loss estimation

1. 0

UBC-SAWS model

Sites of interest
Event 101

Event Time Magnitude Epicentre Depth

Incremental
dynamic
analysis

0.8

. . . . .

101 2.45 5.92 [48.2, -122.85] 5.5

0.6

Event 102

102 7.98 4.86 [50.2, -124.37] 7.3

0.4

103 19.41 4.74 [51.2, -120.25]12.1

R BL ( δ )
R CO ( δ )
R BI ( δ )

104 40.67 6.32 [47.2, -121.19] 4.7 Event 103

0.2

105 23.57 5.45 [49.8, -123.49] 5.1

. . . . .

0.0

0.0 0.2 0.4

Damage factor

0.6 0.8 1.0

δ

Panel 5: Earthquake risk assessment of a portfolio of buildings and infrastructure

10 -1

Deaggregation of aggregate seismic loss

Probability distribution of
aggregate seismic loss

Return period: 475 years

10 -2

0.10

8.0

10 -3

0.05

7. 0

6.0

0 0

10 -4

Magnitude

50

5.0

0 100 200
Aggregate seismic loss (10 6 CAD)

300 100

150 200

Distance

28.1 Seismic loss estimation framework.