Seismic risk and possible maximum loss (PML) analysis of reinforced concrete structures - Seismic Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure Systems - page 748

0.040

0.030

0.020

Integrated risk curve

0.010

PML

NEL

0.000

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20

Loss ratio (loss amount/replacement cost)

27.9 Comparison of seismic risk curves and integrated risk curve for
City D.

Table 27.3 Summary of the major earthquake scenarios for City D

Annual
prob. of
occurrence

Cumulative
annual
prob.

PGA
(cm/s 2 ) Hypocenter Mag. NEL PML

1 (139.70, 35.70)

6.5 0.000107 0.000107 344.1 0.1038 0.3447

2 (139.50, 35.70)

6.5 0.000107 0.000214 313.4 0.0814 0.2600

3 (139.70, 35.50)

6.5 0.000107 0.000322 300.7 0.0729 0.2298

4 (139.70, 35.70)

6.0 0.000309 0.000631 285.3 0.0633 0.1966

5 (139.50, 39.50)

6.5 0.000107 0.000738 280.0 0.0601 0.1859

6 1703, 1923 Kanto

8.0 0.001114 0.001852 270.9 0.0549 0.1686

7 Kanto north-
western fault

8.0 0.000000 0.001852 264.2 0.0512 0.1566

8 (139.50, 35.70)

6.0 0.000309 0.002161 253.5 0.0457 0.1388

9 (139.70, 35.50)

6.0 0.000310 0.002470 240.7 0.0395 0.1193

10 (139.70, 35.70) 5.5 0.000891 0.003359 225.6 0.0329 0.0988

11 (139.50, 35.50) 6.0 0.000310 0.003668 220.1 0.0307 0.0921

12 Tachikwa fault
zone

7.4 0.000428 0.004094 220.0 0.0307 0.0919

sensitivity). Therefore, from catastrophic risk management viewpoints, con-
sideration of both curves may provide additional insight on the underlying
seismic loss process.
The same analysis was repeated for six cities (including Tokyo); values of
the three risk measures, PML, NEL, and integrated seismic risk curve, for
the six cities are compared in Figure 27.10. Note that these risk measures
are calculated for the return period of 475 years (as a typical risk level).
From Fig. 27.10 it can be observed that for all cities, except for City C, the