Seismic risk assessment for oil and gas pipelines - Seismic Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure Systems - page 707

25.12 Conclusions
The preceding discussion provides a general overview of key aspects of
quantitative seismic risk assessment for oil or gas pipelines. As is hopefully
apparent from this discussion, the process requires numerous assumptions
regarding many poorly defi ned or highly variable input parameters and
models. Therefore, specifi c results can be highly dependent upon the profes-
sional qualifi cations and experience of the personnel making the assump-
tions and conducting the analyses. This level of uncertainty is considered to
be one of the main reasons why explicit risk acceptance criteria have not
been directly incorporated regulatory requirements. Those undertaking or
contemplating facilitating decisions on oil and gas pipelines based upon the
results from a seismic risk assessment should exercise caution in giving
undue credence to numerical risk values. Given the current state of knowl-
edge, estimates of risk within at least a factor of two can be considered
'equal'.
25.13 References
ALA (2001a), Design of Buried Steel Pipe , American Lifelines Alliance.
Available from www.americanlifelinesalliance.com [last accessed December 28,
2011].
ALA (2001b), Seismic Fragility Formulations for Water Systems , American Lifelines
Alliance. Available from www.americanlifelinesalliance.com [last accessed
December 28, 2011].
API (2007), Fitness-for-service , API Standard 579-1/ASME FFS-1, 2nd edition,
American Petroleum Institute.
API (2010), Welding of Pipelines and Related Facilities , API Standard 1104, 20th
edition, American Petroleum Institute.
ASCE (1984), Guidelines for the Seismic Design of Oil and Gas Pipeline Systems ,
American Society of Civil Engineers, Gas and Liquid Fuel Lifelines Committee,
Technical Council on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering, pp. 157-170.
ASCE (2010), Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures , ASCE/
SEI 7-10, American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, VA.
ASME (2007), Gas Transmission and Distribution Systems , ASME B31.8-2007,
American Society of Mechanical Engineers.
Bolt B, and Abrahamson N (2003), 'Estimation of strong seismic ground motions,'
International Handbook of Earthquake & Engineering Seismology , Volume B,
Chapter 59, W.H.K. Lee, H. Kanamori, P.C. Jennings, and C. Kisslinger, editors,
Academic Press.
Byrne P, Park S, Beaty M, Sharp M, Gonzalez L, and Abdoun T (2004), 'Numerical
modeling of liquefaction and comparison with centrifuge tests,' Canadian Geo-
technical Journal 41 (2),193-211.
California Department of Education (2007), Guidance Protocol School Site Pipeline
Risk . Available from http://www.cde.ca.gov/ls/fa/sf/protocol07.asp [last accessed
December 31, 2011].