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relative activity rates, in the second case only source 2 can generate the
event and
p
1
0.
Plots (c) and (d) compare the original (standard Gaussian) density for
the inter- and intra-event residuals, with their shifted IS densities and the
histogram of sampled values. The indicated mean shifts values are very
consequential in obtaining good results and have been chosen following the
indications in Jayaram and Baker (2010).
Finally, Fig. 18.15 shows mean annual rates of exceedance for some per-
formance metrics of interest. Plot (a) refers to fatalities. Mean rates are
=
p
3
=
10
0
10
0
City close to
the sources
Cities far from
the sources
10
-1
10
-1
Sharp transition
10
-2
10
-2
City A
City B
City C
City A
City B
City C
10
-3
10
-3
10
-5
10
-4
10
-3
10
-2
10
-1
10
0
10
-2
10
-1
10
0
Fatalities/city population
Displaced people/population
(a)
(b)
10
0
10
0
WSS pumps cannot
fail due to EPN failure
10
-1
10
-2
Dependent lifelines
Independent lifelines
No lifelines
Dependent lifelines
Independent lifelines
10
-3
10
-2
10
-1
10
0
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Displaced people/population
Water supply system: SSI
(c)
(d)
18.15
Complete simulation: mean annual rate of exceedance of (a)
fatalities and (b) displaced population, as a ratio of total population,
by city; different mean annual rates of exceedance obtained
considering various levels of interaction of (c) system serviceability
index and (d) normalised displaced population (curves refer to city B).
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