Stochastic modeling of deterioration in buildings and civil infrastructure - Seismic Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure Systems - page 425

1

LC

d ND

0.8

d SD

0.6

d (SD AC)

0.4

d (SD SC)

0.2

Mean
Bounds

0

0 50 100 150 200 250

t (years)

16.11 Probability distribution for t F considering the effects of corrosion
and earthquakes.

corrosive environment) and thus observations/conclusions made in this
study should not be directly extended to other deterioration scenarios.
Infrastructure systems are complex systems and modeling their life cycle in
the presence of multiple sophisticated and interacting deterioration pro-
cesses is highly challenging. However, the benefi ts of continuing research
in this area are also considerable. In order to advance the state-of-the-art,
work is required to model the interaction between various deterioration
mechanisms, modeling non stationary deterioration processes and develop-
ing robust frameworks to incorporate laboratory data in the models.

16.6 References

Ang, A. H-S. and Tang, W. H., 2007. Probability concepts in engineering: Emphasis
on applications in civil and environmental engineering. 2nd Ed. New York: John
Wiley & Sons.
Baker, J. W., 2011. Conditional mean spectrum: tool for ground motion selection.
Journal Structural Engineering , 137 (3), 322-331.
Brown, J. and Kunnath, S. K., 2004. Low-cycle fatigue failure of reinforcing steel
bars. ACI Materials Journal , 101 (6), 457-466.
Caltrans, 2006. Seismic design criteria , Version 1.4 . Sacramento: California Depart-
ment of Transportation.