Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of civil infrastructure - Seismic Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure Systems - page 23

the Seed-Idriss simplifi ed method for PLHA and seismic vulnerability
assessment based on incremental dynamic analysis for PSRA. They can be
replaced by any suitable models/methods that achieve seamless interface
with PSHA (note: depending on the necessity, PSHA needs to be improved
to promote the integration; e.g. PSHA can be carried out for various seismic
intensity measures).
It is envisaged that a vast fi eld of applications and extensions is possible.
A partial list of future research topics to be explored includes:

• In PSHA, ground motion prediction equations can be replaced by
ground motion time-series simulation (e.g. stochastic point-source and
fi nite-fault methods). The benefi t of such a direct approach is that input
time-series data for nonlinear dynamic analysis can be readily available
without selecting and scaling available ground motion records.

• Applications to PSRA of a building can be further extended to multiple

buildings and infrastructure systems. For such analyses, consideration of
spatially correlated ground motions is the key. Several initial applica-
tions have been performed (see for example Chapter 3). Nonetheless,
there are many unexplored research topics in this fi eld.

• Extension of PLHA to liquefaction-related damage consequences is an

important and open research fi eld. For these purposes, probabilistic
models for predicting ground settlement, pile-foundation damage, and
slope instability need to be developed (with similar rigorousness to
structural vulnerability models).

• Beyond the effects of ground shaking, a multi-hazards approach can be

advanced. For instance, if tsunami inundation models are available, they
can be incorporated into the framework to take into account both
ground shaking and tsunami impact. This will be particularly useful for
mega-thrust subduction zones (e.g. Japan, Mexico, and Chile).

1.5 References

Adams J, Halchuk S (2003), Fourth generation seismic hazard maps of Canada:
values for over 650 Canadian localities for the 2005 National Building Code of
Canada (Open File 4459), Ottawa, Geological Survey of Canada.
Atkinson G M (2011), 'An empirical perspective on uncertainty in earthquake
ground motion prediction', Can J Civil Eng , 38 , 1002-1015.
Atkinson G M, Goda K (2011), 'Effects of seismicity models and new ground-
motion prediction equations on seismic hazard assessment for four Canadian
cities', Bull Seism Soc Am , 101 , 176-189.
Atkinson G M, McCartney S E (2005), 'A revised magnitude-recurrence relation
for shallow crustal earthquakes in southwestern British Columbia: considering
the relationships between moment magnitude and regional magnitudes', Bull
Seism Soc Am , 95 , 334-340.