Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of civil infrastructure - Seismic Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure Systems - page 9

Distance to
Vancouver

Synthetic earthquake catalogue for western Canada

Event
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
:

Time
(yrs)
2.72
4.90
5.48
5.72
6.90
8.21
10.60
15.93
25.61
27.07
32.95
38.22
46.41
47.52
48.42
48.48
49.25
:

M w
4.87
5.75
5.64
5.61
6.39
5.56
4.98
4.81
6.64
4.99
7.24
6.61
5.74
5.32
5.95
7.04
5.47
:

Lat.
50.51
47.93
50.59
49.44
48.79
47.63
49.21
47.78
49.88
49.37
48.27
48.94
48.60
47.42
48.42
49.17
48.05
:

Long.
-123.69
-125.00
-123.27
-124.32
-122.77
-122.67
-120.65
-122.22
-124.58
-121.48
-121.08
-125.21
-123.68
-123.05
-122.85
-122.44
-123.51
:

H
(km)
14.2
18.7
15.5
13.8
43.1
53.9
13.0
38.6
12.0
12.4
13.2
5.9
14.5
75.0
47.3
16.7
83.8
:

L
(km)
2.2
9.6
14.8
7.9
20.1
5.0
4.5
3.0
23.5
3.1
26.7
22.3
13.8
5.0
7.2
46.1
5.7
:

W
(km)
2.8
9.3
3.8
6.8
9.7
5.9
2.7
2.1
17.4
2.9
21.6
21.1
8.6
7.0
13.2
13.9
4.9
:

f
(deg)
311.6
242.6
199.2
40.8
299.9
166.9
141.8
4.3
240.4
208.7
267.8
140.8
318.2
308.8
73.5
333.0
241.3
:

d
(deg)
53.9
90.0
56.5
82.9
79.6
69.4
65.8
53.6
41.1
71.7
78.0
65.4
63.3
69.4
43.8
70.2
87.0
:

R
(km)
147.4
188.9
145.2
82.9
55.9
183.4
183.2
175.9
118.1
125.6
183.1
146.9
75.1
210.1
94.2
44.9
153.1
:

2.0

Response spectra values for Vancouver

M w = 7.04
r jb = 44.9 (km)
V S30 = 555 (m/s)

Event
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
:

PGA
( g )
0.0049
0.0068
0.0022
0.0056
0.0417
0.0015
0.0011
0.0004
0.0409
0.0007
0.0119
0.0081
0.0329
0.0020
0.0217
0.1403
0.0090

SA(0.2)
( g )
0.0156
0.0080
0.0416
0.0148
0.2062
0.0013
0.0068
0.0008
0.0635
0.0145
0.0326
0.0818
0.0818
0.0010
0.0346
0.5032
0.0234

SA(0.5)
( g )
0.0018
0.0038
0.0179
0.0396
0.0827
0.0013
0.0099
0.0006
0.0311
0.0018
0.0465
0.0556
0.0668
0.0003
0.0049
0.1453
0.0047
:

SA(1.0)
( g )
0.0010
0.0038
0.0085
0.0135
0.0427
0.0020
0.0014
0.0002
0.0413
0.0019
0.0218
0.0201
0.0045
0.0006
0.0034
0.0612
0.0132

SA(2.0)
( g )
0.0005
0.0048
0.0018
0.0025
0.0249
0.0002
0.0002
0.0001
0.0198
0.0005
0.0233
0.0589
0.0035
0.0001
0.0008
0.0888
0.0049

1.0

0.5

0.503 g

Variability ( )

Total factor to
median GMPE

ε : 1.60

: 2.35

0.2

0.215 g

0.1

0.05

GMPE Weight

A05
HG07

0.25

0.02

0.25
0.5 BA08

0.01

12 5 0 20 50 100 200

Distance (km)

1.4 Evaluation process of predicted ground motion parameters using
a synthetic earthquake catalogue and multiple GMPEs.

step, one typically uses multiple GMPEs deemed applicable to the region/
site of interest. The use of alternative GMPEs is a popular approach to
considering epistemic uncertainties in the correct median motions for given
event scenarios (Atkinson and Goda, 2011), though it is not necessarily the
best approach, as will be discussed later. By applying GMPEs to all events
in the synthetic catalogue, a long (hypothetical) history of ground motion
intensity estimates is obtained. Finally, the calculated values are reorganised
to develop a list of the annual maximum ground motion parameters in an
ascending order (note: for each event, occurrence time should be kept in
the synthetic catalogue, so that the annual maximum values can be identi-
fi ed). The seismic hazard curve is simply a plot of the sorted annual maximum
ground motion parameter as a function of exceedance probability; mean