Assessing and managing the risk of earthquake-induced liquefaction to civil infrastructure - Seismic Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure Systems - page 133

• The response of buildings and other infrastructure to liquefaction-
induced PGD typically relies upon expert opinion and empirical data,
both of which have their associated uncertainties.

This chapter has presented a framework (Fig. 5.2) for appraising each of
these areas of uncertainty in a logical manner. However, the overarching
requirement in any risk-based approach to liquefaction hazard is explicit
consideration of the uncertainties , in order to obtain a robust estimation of
the likelihood of the hazard occurring, and the possible consequence if it
does occur. By understanding the uncertainties, it is possible to defi ne the
most likely scenario, but also the worst case, which is essential for a rigorous
risk management approach.
Finally, the importance of aligning risks due to liquefaction with the
overall project risk management strategy is reiterated. Risk-based decisions
must be made within a clear framework of tolerable and unacceptable risks,
whatever the underlying hazard event may be. The cost of the risk event
and the benefi t of undertaking mitigation measures are both fundamental
part of risk-based decision making.

5.7 References

Aydan, O., Atak, O.V., Ulusay, R., Hamada, H., & Bardet, P.J. (2005) Ground defor-
mations and lateral spreading around the shore of Sapanca lake induced by the
1999 Kocaeli earthquake, Proceedings of Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering
Satellite Conference Osaka , Japan .
Bird, J.F. & Bommer, J.J. (2004) Earthquake losses due to ground failure. Engineer-
ing Geology 75 (2): 147-179.
Cetin, K.O., Seed, R.B., Der Kiureghian, A., Tokimatsu, K., Harder, L.F., Kayen,
R.E., & Moss, R.E.S. (2004) Standard penetration test-based probabilistic and
deterministic assessment of seismic soil liquefaction potential, Journal of Geo-
technical and Geoenvironmental Engineering , ASCE 130 (12): 1314-1340.
Cetin, K.O., Bilge, H.T., Wu, J., Kammerer, A., & Seed, R.B. (2009a) Probabilistic
model for the assessment of cyclically induced reconsolidation (volumetric) set-
tlements. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering , ASCE
135 (3): 387-399.
Cetin, K.O., Bilge, H.T., Wu, J., Kammerer, A., & Seed, R.B. (2009b) Probabilistic
models for cyclic straining of saturated clean sands. Journal of Geotechnical and
Geoenvironmental Engineering , ASCE 135 (3): 371-386.
FEMA (2003) HAZUS-MH Technical Manuals . Federal Emergency Management
Agency, Washington, DC.
Free, M., Anderson, S., Milloy, C., & Mian, J.F. (2006) Geohazard risk management
for infrastructure projects. Proceedings of ICE , Civil Engineering 159 , Special
Issue 2 : 28-34.
Goda, K., Atkinson, G.M., Hunter, J.A., Crow, H., & Motasedian, D. (2011) Proba-
bilistic liquefaction hazard analysis for four canadian cities. Bulletin of the Seis-
mological Society of America 101 (1): 190-201.