Assessing and managing the risk of earthquake-induced liquefaction to civil infrastructure - Seismic Risk Analysis and Management of Civil Infrastructure Systems - page 123

Seismic Hazard
Probability distribution of
seismic hazard values for a
speciied return period

Regional or site-speciic
seismic hazard assessment

Soil parameter uncertainty
Liquefaction potential
assessment uncertainty

Liquefaction potential
Probability of surface manifestation
of liquefaction

Liquefaction mode

Geometry/
geography/
historical data

Likelihood of lateral
spread

Likelihood of low
failure

Likelihood of
settlement

Geometry, soil properties
Input parameter uncertainty
Assessment method
uncertainty

Most likely PGD and potential range of PGD

Levels of movement that
are likely to cause damage
to infrastructure

Likelihood of damaging levels of ground movement

5.4 Framework for a risk-based assessment of the likelihood that
liquefaction will occur and cause damage to an infrastructure system.

Table 5.1 Typical fi ve-point qualitative scale of likelihood with
approximate ranges of calculated probability

Likelihood category Suggested probability range

Extremely unlikely < 0.1

Unlikely 0.1-0.3

Moderate 0.3-0.7

Likely 0.7-0.9

Extremely likely > 0.9

5.4 Response of infrastructure to
liquefaction hazards
The potential response of various types of infrastructure to liquefaction
hazards is illustrated in Figs 5.5 to 5.10.