Environmental Engineering Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 25.3
Examples of operational and preoperational flood forecasting systems routinely using ensemble weather predictions
as input
Forecast centre
Ensemble NWP input
Further information
European Flood Alert System (EFAS) of the
European Commission Joint Research
Centre
ECMWF and COnsortium for Small
scale MOdelling - Limited-area
Ensemble Prediction System
(COSMO-LEPS)
Thielen
et al
., 2009a
Georgia-Tech/Bangladesh project
ECMWF
Hopson and Webster, 2008
Finnish Hydrological Service
ECMWF
Vehvilainen and Huttunen, 2002
Swedish Hydro-Meteorological Service
ECMWF
Johnell
et al
., 2007; Olsson and Lindstrom,
2008
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services
(AHPS) from NOAA
US National Weather Service
(NOAA)
www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/ahps/; McEnery
et al
., 2005
MAP D-PHASE (Alpine
region)/Switzerland
COSMO-LEPS
Rotach
et al
., 2008
Vituki (Hungary)
ECMWF
Balint
et al
., 2006
Rijkswaterstaat (The Netherlands)
ECMWF, COSMO-LEPS
Kadijk 2007; Renner and Werner, 2007;
Werner 2005
Royal Meterological Institute of Belgium
ECMWF
Roulin, 2007; Roulin and Vannitsem, 2005
Vlaamse Milieumaatschappij (Belgium)
ECMWF
www.overstromingsvoorspeller.be
Meteo France
ECMWF and Arpege EPS
Regimbeau
et al
., 2007; Rousset-Regimbeau
et al
., 2008
Land Oberostereich, Niederostereich,
Salzburg, Tirol (Austria)
Integration of ECMWF into Aladin
Haiden
et al
., 2007; Komma
et al
., 2007;
Reszler
et al
., 2006
to undertake role playing where theymust make decisions
and issue warnings to civil protection based on a replay
of real flood forecasts.
At the time of writing, EFAS is running in pre-
operational mode with plans over the next couple of
years to move to operational forecasts. As Thielen
et al
(2009a) discuss:
References
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Once fully developed and tested, EFAS will not only
provide early flood alert information to the national
hydrological forecasting services, but it will also repre-
sent a powerful tool for the European Commission and
the Member States' authorities for monitoring hydro-
logical conditions across Europe, analysing climatology
and trends over the past years based on a consistent and
homogeneous platform, as well as for forecasting possible
future trends when coupled with seasonal forecasts and
climate change model outputs. Furthermore, because of
the trans-boundary nature of the EFAS simulations, it
could be anticipated that exchange of flood forecast-
ing experiences, data and research practices would be
favoured within the platform.
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