Models in Policy Formulation and Assessment: The WadBOS Decision-Support System - Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity - page 335

been added to the toolbox of the spatial scientists and
the policymaker, including: simulation, neural networks,
genetic algorithms and cellular automata.
But, the task ahead is still huge. Today, the scientific
community cannot offer policymakers the instruments
that will solve their ill-definedproblems in an absolute and
indisputable manner. It probably never will. The prob-
lems encountered are too big and the knowledge available
is too limited to produce unambiguous answers, but
lessons are learned on how to work with models as instru-
ments for exploration, representing a part of the complex
reality with some level of certainty. These are mainly
'thinking tools' that shed light on problems that otherwise
would not be manageable by the human brain alone.
In our effort to build practical instruments for plan-
ning and policymaking we have developed integrated
simulation models representing the policy domain in
its appropriate spatial and temporal dimensions and
have embedded them in decision-support systems (see
www.riks.nl for other examples). In the remainder of this
chapter we will take the reader through the design and
implementation phases of the kind of system. In partic-
ular we will dwell on the development of the WadBOS
policy support system developed for and applied to the
Dutch Wadden Sea. The very existence of the WadBOS
system is a proof of the fact that the technology and the
skills exist to develop model-based policy-support tools.
However, in the concluding paragraph we will contem-
plate briefly about the many problems that still need
to be solved before the kind of system presented will
be a typical or a standard product used for integrated
policymaking.

exploitation or protection of the area, incompatible views
tend to slow down the decision-making process.
The development of WadBOS started in 1996 when
CUBWAD, the association of government organizations
responsible for the management of the Wadden Sea,
concluded that policymaking could be enhanced if the
abundant existing knowledge about the Wadden Sea,
which is generally spread among the many policymaking,
management and research bodies active in the region,
would be gathered, ordered, linked and made available in
an operational form to those responsible for policymak-
ing. It was expected that an information system of some
sort, a knowledge-based system (KBS), expert system
(ES), or decision-support system (DSS), representing the
Wadden Sea in an holistic manner, integrating ecological
functions and human activities at the appropriate
temporal and spatial scales would be a very useful
instrument for this purpose. Such a system was expected
to enable the exploration of the autonomous dynamics
of the Wadden system as well as the analysis of effects
of policy measures thereon. Thus it would boost analytic
capabilities of the policymakers, when it comes to
searching for solutions and alternatives for solving policy
problems. It would facilitate communication when the
results obtained in the different steps of the policymaking
process need to be shared and discussed with others
involved: stakeholders, fellow policymakers, or the public
as the ultimate recipient of the policies. It would enable
learning when it comes to deepening the understanding
about particular topics, processes and linkages in the
Wadden system. Finally, it would enable knowledge
storage and retrieval when it comes to amassing and
integrating the existing knowledge and accessing it when
and where necessary. Once the available knowledge
would be integrated the system would equally reveal
missing or unsatisfactory elements in the knowledge base
and thus give impetus to future research activities.
Thus, the scope and function of WadBOS is as a
broadly defined system providing information and
knowledge in support of the preparation of, and possibly
the implementation of, integrated policies for the
Wadden Sea. In order to do so, it has an analytic ,a
communication ,a library and a learning function. This is
an ambitious set of functions, which is not easily attained
by traditional information systems such as databases or
GIS systems. Rather, an information system is envisaged
with the ability to manipulate and aggregate data as the
result of statistical, mathematical, heuristic or algorithmic
operations (Catanese, 1979). This is where models as part
of decision-support systems become essential instruments.

21.2 Functions of WadBOS

The Wadden Sea is part of a coastal system extending
from the north of the Netherlands into northern Ger-
many and western Denmark. In the Netherlands, the sea
is a protected nature reserve because of the important
ecological functions that it fulfils. At the same time, the
sea has important economic functions. Fishing, recre-
ation, transportation and mining are among the main
economic activities. It generates employment, income,
leisure, and food for many households. The management
of the different activities and functions of the sea is dis-
tributed over a great number of institutions, ranging from
the municipal to the European. When decisions are to
be made or policies need to be developed relative to the