Introduction - Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity - page 5

in modelling await the technology to catch up for their
successful conclusion. For example, the detailed spatial
models of today are only possible because of the expo-
nential growth in processing power over the last few
decades. Fortunately the human mind is always one step
ahead in posing more difficult questions. Whether this
is a good thing is a question addressed at a number of
points through the topic!
Finally, a brief word about equations. Because the topic
is aimed at a range of audiences, we have tried to keep
it as user-friendly as possible. In Parts II to IV we asked
the contributors to present their ideas and results with
the minimum of equations, but this is not always feasible.
Sooner or later, anyone wanting to build their own
model will need to use these methods anyway. If you are
unfamiliarwith text including equations, wewould simply
like to pass on the following advice of the distinguished
professor of mathematics and physics, Roger Penrose:

the materials relating to each of the specific chapters. The
URL for the site is:

www.environmentalmodelling.net

We will endeavour to keep the links and information as
up to date as possible to provide a resource for students
and researchers of environmental modelling. Please let
us know if something does not work and equally impor-
tantly, if you know of exciting new information and
models to which we can provide links.

References

Bair, E. (2001) Models in the courtroom, in Model Validation:
Perspectives in Hydrological Science (eds M.G. Anderson and
P.D. Bates), John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, pp. 57-76.
Bak, P. (1997) How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized
Criticality , Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Bar-Yam, Y. (1997) Dynamics of Complex Systems , Perseus Books,
Reading, MA.
Bishop, P. (1975) Popper's principle of falsifiability and the
irrefutability of the Davisian cycle. Professional Geographer ,
32 , 310-15.
Borges, J.L. (1970) Labyrinths, Penguin Books, Harmondsworth.
Casti, J.L. (1994) Complexification: Explaining a Paradoxical World
through the Science of Surprise , Abacus, London.
Grand, S. (2000) Creation: Life and How to Make It , Phoenix,
London.
Mulligan, M. and Wainwright, J. (2012) Building Environmental
Models: A Primer on Simplifying Complexity ,JohnWiley&Sons,
Ltd, Chichester.
Oreskes, N., Shrader-Frechette, K. and Bellitz, K. (1994) Verifica-
tion, validation and confirmation of numerical models in the
Earth Sciences. Science , 263 , 641-6.
Penrose, R. (1989) The Emperor's New Mind , Oxford University
Press, Oxford.
Rayner, S. and Malone, E.L. (1998) Human Choice and Climate
Change , Batelle Press, Columbus, OH.
Richards, K.S. (1990) 'Real' geomorphology. Earth Surface Processes
and Landforms , 15 , 195-7.
Richards, K.S., Brooks, S.M., Clifford, N., et al . (1997) Theory,
measurement and testing in 'real' geomorphology and phys-
ical geography, in Process and Form in Geomorphology (ed.
D.R. Stoddart), Routledge, London, 265-92.
Sarewitz, D. and Pielke Jr, R.A. (1999) Prediction in science and
society. Technology in Society , 21 , 121-33.

If you are a reader who finds any formula intimidating
(and most people do), then I recommend a procedure
I normally adopt myself when such an offending line
presents itself. The procedure is, more or less, to ignore
that line completely and to skip over to the next actual
line of text! Well, not exactly this; one should spare the
poor formula a perusing, rather than a comprehending
glance, and then press onwards. After a little, if armed
with new confidence, one may return to that neglected
formula and try to pick out some salient features. The
text itself may be helpful in letting one know what is
important and what can be safely ignored about it. If
not, then do not be afraid to leave a formula behind
altogether.

Penrose (1989: vi)

1.5 The topic's web site

As a companion to the topic, we have developed a related
web site to provide more information, links, examples
and illustrations that are difficult to incorporate here (at
least without having a CD in the back of the topic that
would tend to fall out annoyingly!). The structure of the
site follows that of the topic, and allows easy access to