Improving Productivity, Profitability and Sustainability of Degraded Grasslands Through Tree-Based Land Use Systems in the Philippines - Smallholder Tree Growing for Rural Development and Environmental Services - page 295

and 0 tC ha −1 year −1 for both IMPLUS and FPLUS systems (Appendix 3). The tim-
ber plantation system (TPLUS) had the highest net carbon sequestration and fixa-
tion because of huge biomass production and higher timber yield. The
Imperata -grazing system (IMPLUS) and current farmers' practice of annual maize
cropping (FPLUS) have zero carbon sequestration because there is no accumulated
standing biomass over time on these systems, which is due to the annual and sea-
sonal harvests of grasses and maize crops respectively.

14.3.6 Risk Analysis Results

Incorporating risk into the analysis allows us to consider how variations in the
output price may affect the point estimates of NPV obtained above. The expected
mean NPVs estimated with the output price risks taken into account were slightly
higher than the point estimates obtained from deterministic results, except those
from the IMPLUS system (Table 14.7). The expected mean NPV estimates under
tree-based systems ranged from PhP 152,352 ha −1 in TIMPLUS system to PhP
1.39 M ha −1 in TPLUS system. For FPLUS system, the expected mean NPV was
about PhP 31,007 ha −1 and PhP 488 ha −1 for IMPLUS system. The relative ranking
of alternative land use systems did not change under the stochastic results. The
TPLUS system gave the highest expected NPV and the lowest was under the
IMPLUS system.
The risk analysis not only provided mean estimates, but also the entire distri-
bution of the NPV estimates. The NPV of various land use alternatives can lie
within a wide range of values. For example, the expected NPV of TPLUS ranged
from a low value of PhP-29,577 ha −1 to a maximum of PhP 31.4 M ha −1 . There
were about four percent and three percent probability of obtaining negative NPV
for IMPLUS and TPLUS systems respectively. The IMPLUS system has only one

Table 14.7 Expected and probability distributions of net present value of alternative land use
systems at 10 percent discount rate, Claveria, Misamis Oriental, The Philippines
Land use

Expected NPV Probability CV

system (P ha −1 ) (%) (%)

Mean Min Max NPV ≤ 0 NPV ≥ point

estimate

IMPLUS 488 −133 1,224 1.09 51.53 46

FPLUS 31,007 22,313 40,163 0.00 48.33 10

TIMPLUS 152,352 −4,959 3,724,745 3.97 76.33 205

TCLUS 188,727 28,088 3,734,460 0.00 76.24 164

TCSFLUS 388,403 12,978 8,856,102 0.00 76.26 191

TPLUS 1,038,894 −29,577 25,288,820 3.37 76.32 204