The Adoption of Smallholder Rubber Production by Shifting Cultivators in Northern Laos: A Village Case Study - Smallholder Tree Growing for Rural Development and Environmental Services - page 128

5.7 Discussion and Conclusion

The case study of Hadyao shows that farmers are in the middle of a major transition
from primary dependence on the shifting cultivation of rice for subsistence to
dependence on smallholder rubber and the market economy. Population growth,
market demand, improved transport infrastructure, and government restrictions on
land use have combined to induce the adoption of rubber planting by almost every
household in the village. While these trends in the economic and policy environment
have created the context for the adoption of rubber, the expansion of rubber planting
has been initiated by smallholders themselves, based on their own assessment of the
trade-off between subsistence and commercial agriculture, and with the encourage-
ment of village leaders and local-level officials. Economic analysis shows that, given
current and likely future market conditions, investment in smallholder rubber produc-
tion in this setting is based on good economic returns. Moreover, the potential for
rubber in the study village is not an isolated case; there are extensive areas in
Luangnamtha Province that appear to be economically suitable for rubber. The transi-
tion underway in Hadyao and elsewhere in Northern Laos is broadly consistent with
the theories of agricultural transformation briefly reviewed at the outset, supporting
Raintree and Warner's notion that, in upland environments such as this, the incorpo-
ration of tree crops in the farming system presents an alternative agricultural develop-
ment pathway to the intensification of food crop production outlined by Boserup.
While rubber is helping farmers increase their income, there are some emerging
constraints. Land is becoming a constraint due to a growing demand among farmers
to expand their rubber holdings, though less-accessible land is still available and, at
least for now, some farmers are able to plant rice and rubber in other villages.
Labour is also becoming a constraint; though at this stage family labour can handle
the tapping, as more trees come into production this will become an issue, putting
more pressure on rice production. Rubber farmers may have to reduce further the
area of rice or even stop growing rice altogether if they want to expand their rubber
holdings. Even now, the land and labour constraints mean that most households no
longer attain rice self-sufficiency. Hence many farmers have now moved into
Myint's second and more risky stage in the transition from subsistence to commer-
cial agriculture, corresponding to Barlow and Jayasuriya's stage of 'agricultural
transformation', where spare land and labour resources are fully utilised and largely
committed to production for the market.
Despite the popularity of rubber and the stated intention of many farmers in the
study village to stop shifting cultivation and plant only rubber, it is unlikely that
upland rice production will be replaced completely. Farmers still need to grow
upland rice or intercrop rice in their rubber plots, especially those whose rubber
trees are still immature. Farmers also face the risk that the price of rubber will fall
or that they cannot sell to China. Hence they may need to expand rice production
again. One advantage of rubber is that, given a major market collapse, it is relatively
easy to revert to shifting cultivation, as seen historically among rubber smallholders
in Indonesia and Malaysia.