Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
24.7
Conclusions
This chapter has reviewed the research that has evolved over the last decade
concerning facility disruption. Disruptions can be thought as arising out of intention
(e.g., terrorism), by accident, or by a natural disaster. It has covered three main
areas of related research: models of facility interdiction, combined models of
facility interdiction and protection, and models of resilient design. These models
are designed to address the three basic questions that concern systems planners
and operators when facing reality: (1) how much can a service system be degraded
in its efficiency when disrupted; (2) how might resources be allocated to protect
against such possible events; (3) how might a new system be designed so that it is
naturally resilient? Although past work has been based principally on the application
of such models using hypothetical data, they have demonstrated that small changes
in levels of protection can be effective at improving a system's ability to cope with
a disaster. Further, it has been shown that equal if not better facility deployment
results when taking into account possible levels of disruption (whether intentional
or natural). Ignoring disaster may come at a cost that is too high when compared to
addressing such possibilities in operation (interdiction/fortification) and design. In
fact, the value in modeling for disruption is that one can capture levels of impact
and determine whether to ignore them or make system adjustments. This area of
research is still evolving and future work is needed in applying such concepts to a
wide range of lifeline systems, including power generation and distribution, food
production and distribution, and water supply systems.
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