Forecasting Supply Chain Demand Using Machine Learning Algorithms - Distributed Artificial Intelligence, Agent Technology, and Collaborative Applications - page 352

Table 2. continued

12 Theta, Exponential Smoothing Initialization=Average Control 0.7358

13 Multiple Linear Regression Control 0.7677

14 SuperWide Neural Network, Levenberg-Marquardt, Bayesian

Regularization

Treatment 0.7781

15 Recurrent Neural Network, Backpropagation, Cross-Validation Treatment 0.8090

16 Recurrent Neural Network, Levenberg-Marquardt, Bayesian

Regularization

Treatment 0.8187

17 Neural Network, Levenberg-Marquardt, Bayesian Regularization Treatment 0.8189

18 Neural Network, Backpropagation, Cross-Validation Treatment 0.8498

19 SuperWide Neural Network, Cross-Validation Treatment 0.8818

20 Auto Regressive Moving Average Control 0.9319

21 Trend, Automatic Control 1.6058

22 Trend, 6 Periods Control 8.6140

Table 3. Performance of forecasting techniques for Statistics Canada manufacturing dataset

Rank Method Group NMAE

1 SuperWide Support Vector Machine, Windowed Cross-Validation Treatment 0.4478

2 SuperWide Support Vector Machine, Cross-Validation Treatment 0.4547

3 Multiple Linear Regression Control 0.4910

4 Support Vector Machine, Windowed Cross-Validation Treatment 0.4914

5 Support Vector Machine, Cross-Validation Treatment 0.4932

6 Theta, Exponential Smoothing Initialization=First Control 0 5052

7 Exponential Smoothing, Automatic, Initialization=First Control 0 5055

8 Exponential Smoothing, Automatic, Initialization=Average Control 0 5086

9 Moving Average, Automatic Control 0 5108

10 Theta, Exponential Smoothing Initialization=Average Control 0 5137

11 SuperWide Multiple Linear Regression Control 0 5327

12 Moving Average, 6 Periods Control 0 5354

13 Recurrent Neural Network, Levenberg-Marquardt, Bayesian

Regularization

Treatment 0 5355

14 Neural Network, Levenberg-Marquardt, Bayesian Regularization Treatment 0 5374

15 Exponential Smoothing, 20% Control 0 5483

16 SuperWide Neural Network, Cross-Validation Treatment 0 5872

17 SuperWide Neural Network, Levenberg-Marquardt, Bayesian

Regularization

Treatment 0.6453

18 Recurrent Neural Network, Backpropagation, Cross-Validation Treatment 0.8060

19 Neural Network, Backpropagation, Cross-Validation Treatment 0.8238

20 Auto Regressive Moving Average Control 1 3662

21 Trend, Automatic Control 1 9956

22 Trend, 6 Periods Control 20.8977