Forecasting Supply Chain Demand Using Machine Learning Algorithms - Distributed Artificial Intelligence, Agent Technology, and Collaborative Applications - page 351

Table 1. Performance of forecasting techniques for chocolate manufacturer's dataset

Rank Method Group NMAE

1 SuperWide Support Vector Machine, Windowed Cross-Validation Treatment 0.7693

2 SuperWide Support Vector Machine, Cross-Validation Treatment 0.7717

3 SuperWide Multiple Linear Regression Control 0.7776

4 SuperWide Neural Network, Cross-Validation Treatment 0.7998

5 Exponential Smoothing, Automatic, Initialization=First Control 0.8270

6 Exponential Smoothing, 20% Control 0.8329

7 Theta, Exponential Smoothing Initialization=First Control 0.8347

8 Moving Average, 6 Periods Control 0.8381

9 Moving Average, Automatic Control 0.8534

10 Exponential Smoothing, Automatic, Initialization=Average Control 0.8613

11 Theta, Exponential Smoothing Initialization=Average Control 0.8775

12 Multiple Linear Regression Control 0.9047

13 SuperWide Neural Network, Levenberg-Marquardt, Bayesian

Regularization

Treatment 0.9209

14 Recurrent Neural Network, Levenberg-Marquardt, Bayesian

Regularization

Treatment 0.9307

15 Neural Network, Levenberg-Marquardt, Bayesian Regularization Treatment 0.9331

16 Support Vector Machine, Cross-Validation Treatment 0.9335

17 Support Vector Machine, Windowed Cross-Validation Treatment 0.9427

18 Neural Network, Backpropagation, Cross-Validation Treatment 0.9810

19 Recurrent Neural Network, Backpropagation, Cross-Validation Treatment 0.9954

20 Auto Regressive Moving Average Control 1.0151

21 Trend, Automatic Control 1.6043

22 Trend, 6 Periods Control 8.1978

Table 2. Performance of forecasting techniques for toner cartridge manufacturer's dataset

Rank Method Group NMAE

1 SuperWide Support Vector Machine, Cross-Validation Treatment 0.6777

2 SuperWide Support Vector Machine, Windowed Cross-Validation Treatment 0.6781

3 Exponential Smoothing, 20% Control 0.6928

4 Moving Average, 6 Periods Control 0.6993

5 Exponential Smoothing, Automatic, Initialization=First Control 0.6994

6 Support Vector Machine, Windowed Cross-Validation Treatment 0.7003

7 Moving Average, Automatic Control 0.7054

8 SuperWide Multiple Linear Regression Control 0.7060

9 Support Vector Machine, Cross-Validation Treatment 0.7221

10 Theta, Exponential Smoothing Initialization=First Control 0.7244

11 Exponential Smoothing, Automatic, Initialization=Average Control 0.7259

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