The Energy Evolution - Hydrogen and Fuel Cells: Advances in Transportation and Power - page 31

limited effort and low expectations, the resulting sales were disappoint-
ing. Honda discontinued its EV Plus program and by the spring of 1999,
after three years on the market, GM had leased only 650 EV1s and 500 S-
10 electric pickups. Toyota's RAV4 EV was marketed since the end of 1997
and only sold 500 vehicles by 1999. Ford sold about 450 Ranger electric
pickups in the same time period and only about 250 leases were signed for
the EV Plus. In 10 years EV maker Solectria sold only 350 converted cars
and trucks. Many companies choose to lease vehicles to commercial fleets
to limit their risk from limited sales.
The hydrogen economy could arrive by the end of the next decade or
closer to mid-century. But, interim technologies will play a critical role in
the transition. One of the most important of these technologies is the gas-
electric hybrid vehicle, which uses both an internal combustion engine
and an electric motor. Electronic power controls allow switching almost
seamlessly between these two power sources to optimize gas mileage and
engine efficiency. U.S. sales of hybrid cars has been growing and 2005 saw
the first hybrid SUVs, Ford Escape, Toyota Highlander and Lexus RX400h.
Hybrid sales are expected to rise as gasoline prices continue to increase.
OIL SUPPLIES
A National Energy Policy Report that was released in 2001 predicted
that U.S. requirements for burning 20 million barrels of oil each day will
continue to increase and that increases in U.S. dependence on imported
supplies of oil will reach two-thirds by 2020. Also, the Persian Gulf coun-
tries will be the main source for this amount of oil and the U.S. trade im-
balance will continue to grow.
U.S. dependence upon imported oil could grow faster depending
on oil availability. The petroleum reserves in the U.S. could be depleted
more rapidly but U.S. reserves, which were once about as large as Saudi
Arabia's, have been depleted to the point where some believe that we now
have less than 3% of the world's remaining oil reserves. The U.S. uses oil
at a rate that amounts to more than 25% of the world's production, but
both U.S. and world reserves have been growing as improved recovery
techniques are applied to older fields.
Iraq has oil reserves of about 110 billion barrels which is second only
to Saudi Arabia. Russia has about 50 billion barrels and the Caspian states
another 15 billion. Iraq is one oil producer that could substantially in-