Trends in Transportation - Hydrogen and Fuel Cells: Advances in Transportation and Power - page 174

increases this to the equivalent of 100 miles per gallon. The models show
that 60-70 miles per gallon is possible in hybrid cars using small gasoline
or direct-injection diesel engines, which have much higher emissions.
In 1998 the auto industry turned from weak commitments to a solid
move toward fuel cells and EVs. All the auto companies are pursuing
hydrogen fuel cells in some way. But, the new cars on the road in the near
future are likely to be a mix of vehicles including those with electric drive,
including battery EVs, hybrids with gasoline and direct-injection diesels,
turbo generators and fuel cells.
The move to fuel cells may not be pushed by declining oil supplies.
The cost of developing new oil discoveries continues to fall and we may
not see a forced drop in productivity. It was thought that there was 1.5
billion barrels of oil in the North Sea, but now there appears to be 6 billion
barrels. We may not begin to reach the physical limits of oil production
until mid-century. Supplies could tighten quickly from natural or man-
made disasters and recent price rises are driven by increasing worldwide
demands. Older oil fields are being pursued to meet this demand, but full
development is expected to take years.
One factor in the shift to fuel cells is concern over climate changes.
We may be nearing the end of the carbon economy and the replacement of
internal combustion power with fuel cells. Technology is driving our lives
with tiny chips that have many times the computing power of larger older
computers, yet they cost less to manufacture. Lighter, stronger materials
and structures make electrical drives more feasible. Technology, legislative
mandates and increased competition for markets will drive the fuel cell
for automobiles and electrical power.
DOE RESEARCH
The DOE is funding research in areas such as compressed natural gas
storage, direct-injection diesels with emissions-reducing catalytic converters,
direct-hydrogen fuel cells including a 50-kilowatt automotive unit than runs
without an air compressor and the Epyx gasoline reformer. DOE also supports
national laboratories, such as Los Alamos which has been working on PEM
fuel cells. This is the type used on the Gemini space program.
The liquid fuel reformer that has been worked on at Los Alamos and
the Argonne National Labs is a fuel-flexible processor which can reform
gasoline, natural gas, methanol, or ethanol at the control of a switch.
This would also allow the use of the existing fuel infrastructure, but this