Biology Reference
In-Depth Information
Both sets of GDB estimates are lower than those provided by de Silva
et al. who independently estimated the incidence of Ascaris-
induced intestinal obstruction to be in the range of 0
0.25 cases
per year per 1000 in endemic areas and the case fatality rate to be up to
5%, with 10,500 deaths each year directly attributed to serious compli-
cations of ascariasis.
5,52
These estimates were based on a systematic
review of the available literature, whereas the data sources by which the
GBD estimates are derived are unclear.
Inclusion of uncertainty. No explicit estimate of uncertainty was
included in the 1990 study. Whereas the 2010 study used statistical models
that generated estimates of uncertainty when estimating YLLs and YLDs.
Uncertainty was also included in the definition of disability weights and
propagated through the modeling process.
e
BURDEN OF ASCARIASIS IN 2010
Tabl e 13 .5
presents the global estimates of DALYs due to intestinal
nematodes, including ascariasis from the 1990 and 2010 studies. The
differing methodology between the 1990 and 2010 studies makes it
impossible to directly compare estimates between these studies.
However, the 2010 study provides estimates for both 1990 and 2010,
and these findings are assumed to supersede all previously published
GBD results. In 2010, there were a total of 2.490 billion DALYs, with
54% of all DALYs due to non-communicable causes, compared to 35%
due to communicable, maternal, nutritional, and neonatal causes, and
11% due to injuries. Globally,
intestinal nematodes contributed
TABLE 13.5 Global DALYs (billions) due to ascariasis as estimated by the 1990 study
and the 2010 study (both 1990 and 2010)
2010 study
Cause
1990 study
1990 estimates
2010 estimates
Intestinal
nematodes
3.793
9.0084
(4.9932
5.184
(2.979
15.3911)
a
8.811)
e
e
Ascariasis
1.817
4.2173
(2.2906
1.3148
(0.7126
7.1483)
2.3494)
e
e
Trichuriasis
1.006
0.8571
(0.465
0.6382
(0.3493
1.4204)
1.0614)
e
e
Hookworm
0.97
3.934
(2.0557
3.2311
(1.6951
6.9832)
5.732)
e
e
a
95% uncertainty interval.
Taken from Bundy et al.
15
and Murray et al.
46
