Towards Management Systems and Protocols - Evaluating Sustainable Development in the Built Environment - page 194

❏ Climate change : Which for Vancouver included an expected tem-

perature increase of 3°C-4°C, average precipitation increase of
5%-20% in winter and average precipitation decrease of up to 20%
in summer.

❏ Demographic change : Which demographers are suggesting could

peak at 9 billion globally and then decrease to 6 billion in 2100. For
Vancouver lower fertility rates and increased longevity will result
in a proportionately smaller working population, causing labour
shortages and higher dependency rates within the first two dec-
ades of the twenty-first century and suggesting the encouragement
of further immigration.

❏

Resource scarcity : The accompanying disturbance of the global mar-
ketplace may lead to Vancouver facing food shortages, increased
demand on water supply, land shortages around the city and tim-
ber loss through deforestation and disease, and to non-renewable
energy sources being affected.

❏

Globalisation : Will dissolve national and cultural boundaries and
may result in a new economy based on emerging technologies with
a 'world city' at its centre and hinterland cities at the perimeter.

❏ Worldview shifts : Away from the view that nature was to be exploited

to one where our physical and spiritual connections to the biosphere
are rediscovered and we respect the ecological limits of our planet.

The report goes on to look at the specific forces related to the con-
text for Vancouver which included its place, people, economy and
infrastructure.
The report then describes three challenges that arise from these studies:

❏

Firstly, the need for a move from urban planning viewing cities as
a series of discrete components, to finding common solutions
which would cut across urban planning disciplines and jurisdic-
tions. In other words, a holistic rather than a reductionist model.

❏

Secondly, the challenge of how to deal with the uncertainty inher-
ent in planning 100 years ahead.

❏ Thirdly, the challenge of how to think globally while acting locally.

The team rejected any view that there was a correct development
pathway generic to all situations and decided that they must find
local solutions to local problems.

Stage two: developing the long-term plan
Having set out the context, the team then moved to developing the
long-term plan. This adopted the following three phases:

❏

Phase one - envisioning our future : This involved defining Vancouver
region as 'one system' where the people, the place, the infrastructure