New Zealand - Pacific Crossing Notes: A Sailor's Guide to the Coconut Milk Run - page 333

Looking Back
In retrospect, we couldn't help but examine how so many crews found themselves in such a
precarious situation at sea. There were a number of contributing factors. First, the difficulty
in picking a weather window is that choices can't be compared ahead of time; you can only
weigh the latest forecast against very vague notions of what the future might bring. Conse-
quently, “good enough” is often taken as a reassuring sign. Complicating this was the fact
that respected weather routers gave the waiting fleet a thumbs-up to depart. But even ex-
perts make mistakes, particularly with a “science” at the mercy of the elements. They and
many crews were aware that a depression would form, but gambled with the high odds that
the tropical depression would not amount to much (indeed, many forecast lows turn out to
be false alarms).
In this case, playing it safe paid off. We benefited from the advice of a locally based ama-
teur weatherman, the veteran of multiple passages between Tonga, Fiji, and New Zealand.
He was correct in taking a conservative approach, reminding us that the track and intensity
of a tropical system is nearly impossible to pinpoint in advance. In other words, trusting
computer software that suggests a vessel can stay ahead of a tropical depression's theoretic-
al track five days hence is a dicey proposition at best, especially in the southwest Pacific.
Instead, he heeded his own experience and intuition, and ultimately proved to be spot on.
Furthermore, it seems that many crews heeded a natural urge to get moving “on schedule.”
The fact that this coincided with the general timing of the rally served to reinforce a dash to
the exit door, compounded by subliminal peer pressure. After all, it can be awfully hard to
sit still while an anchorage empties out around you. Impatience was another factor, as some
crews admitted they were just plum tired of waiting. Picking a weather window really did
prove to be an exercise in disciplining oneself to scrutinize the fine print - in both weather
forecasts and in expert advice, such as that appearing in John Martin's early bulletin.
Of course, hindsight is a 20/20 phenomenon. Our observations seek to learn from a trying
experience so that we can be all the wiser the next time around. That's the theory, at least.
Since one of the morals of this story is that theory and practice often differ vastly, well…
let's just say we'll plan for the worst and hope for the best!