Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
Notes
Chapter 1 Landscapes Lost and Found
1 Data on food production analysed from the Food and Agriculture Organ-
ization's (FAO's) FAOSTAT database (www.fao.org). During the past 15 years,
aggregate production in Europe has been largely stable due to supply manage-
ment policies, whereas in the US it has grown by 35 per cent.
2 World population was 3.08 billion in 1960; 3.69 billion in 1970; 4.44
billion in 1980; and 5.27 billion in 1990. The annual growth rate of world
population was 2.1 per cent in the late 1960s; had fallen to 1.3 per cent during
the late 1990s; and is projected by the United Nations Population Fund, 1999,
to fall further to 1 per cent by 2015, to 0.7 per cent by 2030, and to just 0.3
per cent by 2050.
3 For details of food policy analyses and challenges, see, in particular,
materials from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) (www.
ifpri.org) and FAO (www.fao.org). For specific papers, see Pinstrup-Andersen
and Cohen, 1999; FAO, 2000a; Pinstrup-Andersen et al, 1999; Delgado et al,
1999.
4 In the US, US$25 billion is spent each year by federal and state organiz-
ations to provide extra food for this 12 per cent of the national population who
are food insecure. On diets and obesity, see Eisinger, 1998; Lang et al, 1999;
WHO, 1998, 2001; FAO, 2000a, 2000b; Lang et al, 2001.
5 For more on the nutrition transition, see Popkin, 1998. During the period
to 2020, the urban population in developing countries is expected to double to
nearly 3.5 billion, while rural numbers will grow by only 300 million to 3 billion.
The numbers of urban people will, for the first time in human history, have
exceeded those in rural areas. Such a change will also affect food consumption.
As rural people move to urban areas, and as urban people's disposable incomes
increase, so they tend to go through the nutrition transition - particularly from
rice to wheat, and from coarse grains to wheat and rice. They also tend to eat
more livestock products, processed foods, and fruit and vegetables.
6 The annual demand for cereals is predicted by the IFPRI to grow from
1400 million tonnes in 1995 to 2120 million tonnes by 2020. Of this, 2.12
billion tonnes, 48 per cent will be for food and 21 per cent for animal feed in
developing countries, and 8 per cent for food and 23 per cent for animal feed
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