Geography Reference
In-Depth Information
Table 5.2
Selected correlates of changing dwelling values in Vancouver CMA by census tract,
1986-96 (N = 151)
Immigrants as % of population, 1996
0.45
% Chinese ethnicity, 1996
0.56
% British ethnicity, 1996
−0.37
Average household income, 1996
0.33
% professional-managerial occupations, 1996
−0.09
% with university degree, 1996
−0.08
Migrants from BC as % of population
−0.37
Migrants from other provinces as % of population, 1996
−0.66
Source
: Derived from Ley, Tutchener and Cunningham (2002, Table 2)
difficulty of modelling not only the price surge in the 1980s but also the
marked correction with declining year over year prices from 1990 to 1996.
In Vancouver, with shorter oscillations over this period and an overall
upward trajectory, linear correlation more adequately fits actual trends.
The percentage of immigrants in a census tract shows positive and rising
correlations with changes in dwelling value for each period, reaching r =
0.45 for Metro Vancouver in 1996 (Table 5.2). The role of Chinese ethnic-
ity simultaneously rises steadily as a predictor of increasing dwelling values,
and by 1996 has reached r = 0.56, substantially higher than any of the
variables - income, occupation, education - describing socio-economic
status, a factor that might normally be expected to be the leading predictor
of changing dwelling values. In contrast, different measures of domestic
migration showed negative correlations with rising dwelling values in both
the 1971-86 and 1986-96 time periods.
So statistical analysis using both MLS prices and census dwelling values
amply confirms the qualitative accounts pieced together earlier in this chap-
ter concerning the close relationship between globalization - of which
immigration is a significant component - and responses in the Vancouver
housing market. Results also agree with the view of informed members of
the real estate industry. The principal of a large Chinese-Canadian real
estate firm reflected on the Vancouver property market in a conversation in
2006. By then real estate capital flows had diversified beyond Asia-Pacific:
Vancouver is a global destination. People compare it against San Francisco,
Los Angeles, Toronto, London, so it's an international real estate market.
I have a friend who was born in the Middle East, his children in Paris, he
moved to London and now to Vancouver. Why? Because you can do anything
here - this place is open to experimentation and a high quality of life, recrea-
tion, climate, etc. in a way not possible in London. Look at the Whistler
29
and
