Travel Reference
In-Depth Information
ics. At a social level, crackdowns by the Ershad (morality police) and Basij (hardline mili-
tia) on dress and hairstyles have increased, and even the millions of long-tolerated satellite
dishes are being (selectively) targeted.
So What Now?
Iran is more or less split between those who support the existing system - often rural
people and the urban poor - as against those wanting change. The latter have largely given
up on the electoral system and gone back to waiting for 'something to happen'. There are
three main possibilities: a more reform-minded, stable and economically responsible pres-
ident emerges from within the ruling elite (the Gorbachev option); backroom moves by
the elected arm to reduce the power of the clerics (tried and failed under Ahmadinejad); or
a popular revolt brought on by economic stress.
There's little appetite for another revolution,
so a continuation of the status quo is most
likely for the time being. In effect that means
parallel governments. The 'normal' govern-
ment comprises an elected president and
majlis
(parliament), plus lower levels of government
with a mix of elected and appointed officials.
On the unelected side, the aptly named Su-
preme Leader is the head of state. He sits above the Guardian Council, a 12-man group
with six Muslim clerics who are appointed by the Supreme Leader, and six Islamic jurists
appointed by the head of the judiciary, who is himself appointed by the Supreme Leader.
The Guardian Council can veto any law passed by the
majlis
and decides who is fit to run
for elected office. The Supreme Leader also has what amounts to a huge private army,
with the revolutionary Basij, Sepah and Pasdaran militias reporting to him, not the presid-
ent.
It's a combination that entrenches political power under the Supreme Leader and is, as
was seen during the presidency of Mohammad Khatami, one that even a government full
of reformists cannot overcome. The economy, however, is proving harder to control.
With the value of the Iranian rial diving, the Central
Bank of Iran plans to wipe four zeroes off the face
value of notes, and has even run an online poll to
test the appetite for a new currency name (the parsi
was a big winner).
Nukes, Sanctions & the Economy
Iran believes it has an 'inalienable right' to nuclear energy and has a sophisticated pro-
gram to deliver this. Iran insists it has no plan to build nuclear weapons, yet it has refused
to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency and regularly boasts of its ca-
pacity to enrich uranium to a level beyond that needed in a power plant.
