Practical risk assessment for embankments, dams, and slopes - Risk and Reliability in Geotechnical Engineering - page 454

100%

Average curve: 10,000 simulations
Average curve: 100 simulations

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

12 14 16 18 20

Water level in the reservoir (m)

Figure 11.20 The impact of number of simulations when using Monte Carlo on fragility analysis.

100%

Occurence
probability of L i :
p Oi = P Li - P Ui

P Li
P Ui

0%

N
i = 1

L Li L i L Ui

Loads APF = p Oi · P Ci

100%

p Ci

0%

L i

Loads

Figure 11.21 The estimation of annualized probability of failure (APF) using fragility curves.