Geoscience Reference
In-Depth Information
5.6 Summary
Spatial and temporal scales of natural phenomena and their associated patterns are windows
through which to view the dynamics of complex-adaptive ecosystems, the non-linear be-
haviour of which can be bewildering. Both will differ in various geographical regions of
the highly variable and rapidly changing Arctic Ocean, thus presenting huge challenges to
science-informed policy making. As such, panarchy theory provides a powerful formalism
for organization of data, analysis, and modelling by establishing a framework of cross-scale
linkages and feedbacks that facilitates communication across intersections of ecology, so-
ciety, and economics. We provide a brief and simple interpretation of panarchy as it may
be applied to the urgent question of how marine ecosystems (and social-ecological systems)
will respond to the rapid pace of Arctic change and how they can be managed to remain sus-
tainable.
The human response, in terms of foraging strategy as well as management and gov-
ernanceofnaturalresourcesandtheiruse,addsanotherdimensionofmulti-scale complexity
as individuals, communities, and nations respond and adapt to a changing ecosystem at mul-
tiple scales over various time periods. Because humans depend on the Arctic marine eco-
system for local needs and for a substantial portion of the world's fish catch (e.g. Lindholt,
and globally.
Panarchy views nature as a complex-adaptive system, wherein the problems of pattern
and scale represent the central challenge to understanding (cf. Levin,
1992
). On one hand,
the progressive loss of the summer sea ice cover over the Arctic Ocean clearly poses chal-
lenges to existing ecosystems, which may involve a suite of undesirable regime shifts and
even extinctions. On the other hand, it also gives humankind an unprecedented opportun-
ity to explore an ocean changing before our eyes. The sustainable management of emerging
Arctic Ocean ecosystem services depends on our ability to discover, model, and project the
immediate and long-term future of life in this new ocean. The stakes are too high to take
