A new perspective on changing Arctic marine ecosystems: panarchy adaptive cycles in pan-Arctic spatial and temporal scales - Ocean Sustainability in the 21st Century - page 175

tions for the offspring (nauplii and copepodites feeding on phytoplankton) (Søreide et al .,
2010 ; Leu et al ., 2011 ) .
Changes in currents, wind mixing, and upwelling in this domain may affect the in-
tensity and location of pelagic and benthic biological hot spots. Fish, birds, and marine
mammals (as well as people who use those resources) seek out such hot spots, rather than
feeding on prey dispersed over a larger spatial scale. However, marine birds that are tied
to colonies during the breeding season may not be able to reach new hot spots that are
farther away if they lose nearby ones. Some degree of re-organization at this scale is com-
mon within and between years, as sites of production and aggregation move, for example
as the ice edge shifts its relative position or as shifting wind patterns redistribute fronts and
convergence zones (e.g. Wassmann et al ., 2010 ). Although hot spots have been studied in
the past, it is not clear how much the population dynamics is impacted by the presence,
absence, timing, location, or intensity of hot-spots, or even how animals are able to locate
these shifting areas of high productivity. As such, our understanding is far too limited to
allow for reliable predictions about the potential of predators to adapt to such changes.
At the smallest spatio-temporal scale considered here (Domain 4 in Figure 5.3 , Table
5.1 ) are the physical structures and processes that drive and regulate biological rates (e.g.
scales of turbulence and convection, Langmuir cells, micro-layers, melt ponds, brine chan-
nelsinseaice,etc.).Toeachoftheseabiotictemporal-spatialscalesthereexistcorrespond-
ing biological scales suited to exploit the environment. For example, microbes and their
life cycles occur in short time periods and small areas such that the adaptive and evolu-
tionary responses will be quickest and most dramatic, as those species that can exploit new
conditions rapidly outcompete those that cannot, altering the composition at the base of the
food web (Li et al ., 2009 ) . There is considerable variability at this scale in response to the
variability of physical conditions in the Arctic, but directional change will lead to further
departures from previous ranges of microbial distribution, abundance, function, and qual-
ity.Themicrobial foodwebwill alsocontinue tocompete withphytoplankton forresources
such as nutrients and carbon sources such as dissolved organic carbon (Thingstad et al .,
2008 and references therein). In a warming ocean, respiration at many trophic levels will