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planktonic organisms. Biologically, this physical change means the loss of an entire biome
associated with perennial ice (Michel et al ., 2012 ) and a northward extension ofthe season-
al ice season that now dominates the low Arctic or sub-Arctic. Loss of sea ice at this scale
and attendant open water also have implications for atmospheric-ocean interaction, with
possible implications for global weather and climatic patterns (e.g. Overland et al ., 2011 ;
Francis and Vavrus, 2012 ) , and Arctic circulation.
Figure 5.3
The spatio-temporal scales considered in this chapter (numbered 1-4), along with examples of cross-scale
interactions.
Biophysical implications ofthe loss ofsummer sea ice take place at the regional and annual
scale (Domain 2 in Figure 5.3 , Table 5.1 ), wherein the individual shelf regions and adjacent
basins in the Arctic Ocean and associated seasonal patterns of today's primary production
and food-web dynamics are found. The direction and extent of change at this scale will de-
pend on the individual characteristics of each specific shelf and basin region (cf. Carmack
and Macdonald, 2002 ; Carmack and Wassmann, 2006 ) . Collectively, the projected changes
include surface layer warming and increased stratification from melting ice and river run-
off. Light penetration will increase in the basin due to removal of ice and emergence of
melt ponds (Nicolaus et al ., 2012 ) and decrease in shelf areas owing to greater turbidity on
shallow shelves, resulting from wind mixing, river inputs of sediment, and increased per-
mafrost melting and coastal erosion. Likewise, nutrient availability will increase in some
regions due to upwelling (particularly along ice-free shelf edges and off estuaries) and de-
crease in other regions due to increased stratification as a result of ice melt, river inputs,
and warming. Ocean acidification will increase due to increasing atmospheric CO 2 levels,
increased areas of open water for air-sea exchange, high solubility of CO 2 in cold waters,
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