A new perspective on changing Arctic marine ecosystems: panarchy adaptive cycles in pan-Arctic spatial and temporal scales - Ocean Sustainability in the 21st Century - page 171

5.2 Scales and domains in Arctic systems

In the case of pan-Arctic ecosystems (cf. overviews in Wassmann, 2006 , 2011 ) , we define
four linked spatio-temporal domains that help illustrate the mechanisms of change and the
difficulty of predicting the nature of the resulting new state of the Arctic marine ecosystem
(see Table 5.1 ).

Table 5.1 A few examples of key characteristics of the current stable state Arctic marine ecosystem in the
four domains as discussed and the changes likely to occur within and across domains in the near future. The
changes across domains are the hallmark of instability in the panarchy framework.

Today Future (within domain) Future (across domains)

Cold water, perennial sea ice (Domain
1)

Warmer water, ice-free
summers; winters remain
cold and dark

Change in circulation
patterns (Domain 2), change
in productivity patterns
(Domain 3), change in
species composition (Domain
4)

Extreme seasonal changes, but rather
predictable annual cycles (Domain 2)

Extreme seasonal changes,
greater interannual
variability, greater
stratification

Change in ice patterns
(Domain 1), shifts in feeding
and migratory aggregations
(Domain 3), increase in
flexible species at the
expense of specialists
(Domain 4)

Long-term adaptation of ecosystem
(and key players) to short productive
peak during spring (Domain 3)

Greater opportunity for
flexible species, greater
variation in abundance

Changes in distribution of
species and use thereof by
humans and other predators
(Domain 2), changes in
downward pressure on
primary producers (Domain
4)