A new perspective on changing Arctic marine ecosystems: panarchy adaptive cycles in pan-Arctic spatial and temporal scales - Ocean Sustainability in the 21st Century - page 168

ocean)andofhumans(e.g.economics),aswellascombinedsocial-ecologicalsystems(e.g.
institutions that govern natural resource use), are mapped across multiple space and time-
scales in continual and interactive adaptive cycles of growth, accumulation, restructuring,
and renewal. An essential feature of panarchy - in contrast with hierarchical systems - is
to recognize the interplay between persistence and change, and between predictable and
unpredictable (e.g. Walker and Salt, 2006 , 2012 ). Importantly, conceptual models based on
panarchy can incorporate, from the start, the social (human) element.
In complex-adaptive systems the dynamics of a given system at a given scale are gen-
erally dominated bya small number ofkey internal variables that are forced byone ormore
external variables (Levin, 1992 ; Gunderson and Holling, 2001 ; Walker et al ., 2012 ). The
stability of such a system is characterized by its resilience, i.e. its capacity to absorb dis-
turbance and reorganize while undergoing change, so as to retain essentially similar func-
tion, structure, identity, and feedbacks (Walker and Salt, 2012 ) . It is in the capacity of a
system to cope with pressures and adversities such as exploitation, warming, governance
restrictions, competition, etc. that resilience embraces human and natural systems as com-
plex entities continually adapting through cycles of change. The 'adaptive cycle' model
of resilience (Gunderson and Holling, 2001 ) describes this cycle of change ( Figure 5.1 ).
Under various forms of forcing any system will have at the start a building, accumulation,
or exploitation phase that leads to an increasing build-up of energy, wealth, or resources
(cf. Figure 5.1 ) . Over time, the capacity of the system to absorb an increase in forcing is
reached, marking the locked-in or conservation phase (K). If forcing goes further, a tipping
point is reached, followed by a breakdown in the sustainability of the system (Ω). Once the
forcing ceases, the system can re-establish and reorganize itself and enter a new cycle.
Figure 5.1