Agriculture Reference
In-Depth Information
animal products. Thus, the extensive utiliza-
tion of food-feed crops as feedstuffs in animal
production, and especially for ruminants,
likely will be much less in the future. However,
production of forages and concentrates is pro-
jected to vary widely among regions (Herrero
et al
., 2009). Increased production of feed con-
centrates (e.g. maize and sorghum) may occur
in sub-Saharan Africa; however, forage produc-
tion for ruminants is not expected to expand in
South Asia due to land-use competition from
non-agriculture sectors (e.g. urbanization).
Supply of alternative feeds (co- or by-product
feedstuffs from other agriculture processing
industries) for ruminants in more intensive
mixed production systems may be challenged by
scarcity of both land and water availability
(especially for irrigation) (Herrero
et al
., 2009).
Also, consequences of climate change through
time likely will shift locations and increase the
temporal variability of forage and concentrate
feed production (Strzepek and Boehlert, 2010).
Meeting major increases in demand for food
worldwide will have significant impacts on ani-
mal production systems in the foreseeable
future. In developed countries, increased pro-
ductivity and the efficiency of production cou-
pled with greater animal harvest weights will
account for much of the growth, whereas
increase in animal numbers is not expected to
be significant, and may even shrink in some
regions (Thornton
et al
., 2006). However, com-
pared with recent estimates, by 2050 the world's
cattle population is projected to increase 1.7-fold,
whereas sheep and goat numbers may increase
by nearly 60% (Rosegrant
et al
., 2009). Also, the
grazing intensity on available grass- and range-
lands is expected to increase, resulting in consid-
erable intensification of animal agriculture in
humid and sub-humid regions such as Latin
America (Thornton
et al
., 2006).
As the consequence of the factors noted
above, the projected demand, supply and prices
of animal products and food-feed crops are
expected to increase in the future, contrary to
past trends (Thornton
et al
., 2006). The greater
demand for animal products likely will raise
prices of feed concentrates (e.g. maize grain and
soybean meal) for livestock. Competition for land
and water resources for production of biofuels
from crops already is happening in some regions
(Thornton, 2010), exacerbating availability of
traditional feedstuffs and altering types and prices
of feedstuffs available for animal agriculture.
Overall, growing challenges for land and water
use will necessitate significant improvements
in efficiencies of resource use in animal agricul-
ture to meet demands and avoid risk of food inse-
curities. Doubtless, changes in practices and
management of animal production systems in
the future will involve major trade-offs among
people, planet and profit - food security, poverty,
equity, environmental sustainability and eco-
nomic development (Thornton
et al
., 2006).
Greater prices for animal products can benefit
farmers producing extra commodities at least
temporarily. Unfortunately, however, they also
limit accessibility to food for a greater number of
poor people, including poor livestock farmers
especially in developing countries, who cannot
produce net surpluses of food for local, regional
or global markets. Thus, Rosegrant
et al
. (2009)
predict that progress toward reduction of food
insecurity and malnutrition will be slow at best.
Challenges and Competition
for Resources
As emphasized time and again in this topic, the
9 billion people projected to inhabit the earth by
2050 is the major challenge, especially when
coupled with the fact that the vast majority of
the additional population will inhabit urban
areas in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (United
Nations Population Division, 2012). Also, supply,
availability and use of resources are formidable
challenges. Amongst the most worrisome, espe-
cially as related to the potential for a future sus-
tainable animal agriculture, are the use of water
and land, the competition between humans and
animals for food versus feed, effectively building
and managing nutrient and energy (e.g. organic
residues) cycles and waste, and climate change,
all interwoven within the influences and socially
acceptable beliefs and standards of different
societies and cultures (Orr, 2002).
Water use
Water is placed first in this section addressing
challenges to emphasize that without sufficient
