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wanted to be president, there was significant competition for that spot. There were
only a few candidates for VP, however (Figure 2.1). I probed her somewhat on this
decision, asking her why she didn't want to be president instead of only vice presi-
dent. After all, the president would have more power (for what that's worth in the
fifth-grade student council). She firmly explained that she would have no power if
she didn't get elected at all. She also noted that the difference between the two po-
sitions was rather negligible. By being elected VP, she would be able to help advise
and guide this august governing body. What we will explore later in this topic is the
problem that my 10-year-old not only ascertained intuitively but was able to explain
in age-appropriate, nonmathematical terms—that a good chance of getting less is
better than a poor chance of getting more.
FIGURE 2.1 All other factors being equal, there is a 10% chance of becoming
president and a 33% chance of becoming vice president. Running for
VP offers a better possibility of being elected to the student council.
Another observation that she made was her perceptions about why people were
supporting the candidates that they were—even prior to the speeches. She told of
two phenomena that she had witnessed and identified. First, she talked about how
the people who bothered to put up posters and hand-make stickers got a lot of the
buzz. She thought it was silly that people would support someone simply because
they had more posters (or cooler posters, I suppose). However, she was aware of
how the process was happening. If people didn't know about a candidate, there was
no one to support that candidate. What's more, the more posters and stickers that
a kid had up, it would broadcast—in a simplistic sort of way—that the kid was
actually serious about running for office. Again, this had nothing to do with issues…
just a matter of exposure.
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