Game Development Reference
In-Depth Information
The location of the feeder
The state of the feeder
The potential escape routes for squirrels
She does, however, pay attention to:
The location of squirrels
The location of the chew rope
When looking for a place to lie down in the yard, Maya doesn't have to take
into account the locations of the bird feeder, perches, or squirrel escape routes. She
simply doesn't need or want to know about the location, sizes, and types of the
birds. She has little use for the information on whether or not I need to fill the bird
feeder. And, since she is now 15 years old (Lorne Greene would be quick to remind
us that this is 105 in dog years), she may only be mildly interested in where the chew
rope happens to be. If she sees a squirrel (at her age, she can't hear them any more)
she will definitely pay attention and may, for a time, express a modicum of excite-
ment. For the most part, however, this entire backyard inventory is not important
to her. All she wants is soft grass in the sun. (Darn. I forgot to include “condition of
grass� and “location of sun� in the above list. There is so
much
information to include!)
Statistical Overkill in Football
In our own life, we follow similar patterns. There is simply too much to worry
about. A good portion of it is going to stay irrelevant most of the time. Most of it
doesn't have anything to do with any particular decision we are making. And yet, it
seems that humans try desperately to include this irrelevant information in their
decision-making processes. They ascribe meaning where there isn't any. They see
relationships where no relationship exists.
When I was working on a statistical handicapping algorithm for NFL games in
2002, I was amazed at how many things other handicappers took into account to
predict the outcomes of games. Obviously, such things like “home field advantage�
were relevant. However, some people went to great lengths to justify using statistics
that were based on grass vs. turf, indoor vs. outdoor, good vs. bad weather, the
month of the year, wearing normal vs. alternate home uniforms, and the entire his-
tory of one team against the other. Trust me, it doesn't stop there… there are even
more esoteric and strange factors that people take into account in the holy quest for
gridiron prognosticatory perfection.
