Game Development Reference
In-Depth Information
So, through an analysis of the Guess Two-Thirds Game, we have discovered that it
is sometimes illogical to be perfectly rational—even when we
can
be. The reason for
this is that we can't count on superrationality. We know superrationality does not
exist because, even despite our best intentions, humans are not always rational in
their decision making. Of course, humans are not completely
random
either. If
perfect rationality is the pinnacle of the mountain, random decisions are the boulders
strewn around the base. Someplace along the slope between these two extremes is
where the bulk of human decision making is positioned.
But what makes up these decisions? What keeps us from making perfectly ra-
tional choices, even when we may
want
to do so? Even when we realize that it
is
in
our best interests to do so? What is the barrier that gets between the slope of the
mountain where we are and the pinnacle of perfect rationality? It turns out that,
while there are many different pitfalls along the way—too numerous to list, in
fact—many of them can be generally categorized the same way. In a word,
error.
The term
bounded rationality
has come to represent the notion that people
often are not or cannot be completely rational. This is usually due to failings in the
ability to perceive or calculate adequately. If we were, once again, to go back to our
list of criteria for normative decision theory, we would find that many of the expec-
tations therein are the impossibilities (or at least unlikelihoods) that get in the way
of perfect rationality.
Has
all
of the relevant information available
Is able to
perceive
the information with the accuracy needed
Is able to perfectly
perform
all the calculations necessary to apply those facts
Is perfectly
rational
Beginning at the top, we often do not have
all
the relevant information avail-
able. In the case of the Guess Two-Thirds Game, for example, we simply do not
have the ability to know what everyone else is going to guess. That isn't to say that
information isn't there; we simply can't access it. Even when the information is
available to us, we may not realize it as being present or important.
The second item is only slightly different. Even if we know the information is
there and that it is relevant, we may not be able perceive it with the accuracy needed
to lead us in the right direction. That is a simple human failing of not only our
physical senses, but of attention and comprehension.
